Marginal Newspoll

Tuesday’s Newspoll in The Oz offered some interesting news.

As well as putting Labor on 42% of primary votes to the Coalition’s 39%, the 2PP splits ALP 54-46 LIB. That’s a swing from last year’s election of almost 7%.

It’s worth looking at the margin of error here. Newspoll lists its margin of error as around 3% either way. That means that an 8% gap (like that of this week) is the smallest Newspoll result that definitively indicates a lead.

It’s worth bearing the margin of error in mind while reading polls before hysterically reacting to them. Today’s poll could indicate anything between ALP 51-49 LIB and ALP 57-43 LIB. All we can judge for sure is that Labor has a lead. The size of that lead could be anything between tiny and landslide proprotions. Certain sections of the media would do well to remember that.

Anyway, it’s still two years until the election.